Monday, June 17, 2019

Strategy for Draft and the Season

     Okay so if you're reading this you should have already read "Fantasy Football Crash Course". While that article explained how fantasy football actually works, this article will take it a step further and give some do's and don't's and pointers that could help give you a leg up on the competition in your league. We will break this up into two sections...having a successful draft and then tips as you go through the regular season.


The Draft

     While you can't win the league on draft day, you can certainly lose it if you don't know what you're doing. Winning a league championship starts with drafting a solid team, one filled with talent and depth at the key positions. To increase your chances of being successful, there are certain things you should do in the draft and certain things you shouldn't. We will list some of those strategies.

Do

Some research beforehand.

The people who draft better teams are the people who put in the work. They read some articles on players who are underrated (sleepers), overrated (busts), and potential break out stars (break outs). The idea is to draft players you believe are better than where they are being drafted, and avoid players you think will end up being worse than projected.

Do

Use the big board as a reference.

While it isn't perfect, there's a reason certain guys are ranked towards the top and certain guys are ranked towards the bottom. No need to overthink it, a lot of data and expertise goes into projections.

Do

Load up on running backs and wide receivers early.

I can't stress this enough. While running back isn't the sexiest position on a fantasy football team, it probably is what's most important. Most NFL teams only feature one running back (they will use a few, but typically one takes the majority of the workload) and in fantasy you are required to start at least two, three if you start a running back at your flex. They also get injured more frequently than the other positions because their body takes a toll from being tackled many times a game so loading up on quality running backs is essential.

Wide receivers may be slightly less important, but still highly important for similar reasons. You're going to start 2-3 of them, you're going to need some back ups for bye weeks or in case of injury, and there are only so many elite ones that can give high production week to week.

Don't

Take a quarterback in the first few rounds.

While a quarterback is the most important position in real life football (and thus why many players will make this mistake), it's somewhat expendable in fantasy football. Each fantasy team only starts one quarterback, and there are probably 20-25 in the NFL that could score a high about on any given week. When people reach higher for the quarterbacks, they waste opportunity to get some of the better running backs and wide receivers. Ideally, quarterback should be addressed between rounds 5 and 13, probably taking two or three of them.

Do

Draft kickers and defenses super late.

The kickers are super expendable. Any of the 32 could make any field goals of any length on a given week. They will always be available on the waiver wire if you ever need to switch. By the end of the year they're all going to score around the same amount of points, there probably won't be a huge drop off between the kicker with the most points and the kicker who finishes 12th in points. Lastly, a kicker's output is so dependent on luck and opportunity that it's hard to predict week to week. So because the variance between kickers is so little, you should wait until the last couple rounds to draft one.

The same is true for the defenses. There might be 2 or 3 per year that end up being elite, and probably 6 to 8 per year that are just horrendous, but the other 70% are all going to be pretty similar. They're going to have good weeks when they play bad offenses, average weeks when they play average offenses, and bad weeks when they play explosive offenses. We will discuss later how to maximize production from defenses.

Don't 

Immediately fill out your starting line up with your first 9 picks.

Some people think that using their first 9 picks on starters and the rest on the bench is a sure fire way to win, but the problem is you're going to thin yourself too much at the key positions if you do this. It would be especially wasteful to address your kicker and defense in the first 9 picks. Remember, depth is important, every team will experience at least some attrition. Also, everyone is going to draft some guys they wish they hadn't, not everyone ends up being as good as we thought they were. Better to stock up on the skill positions so that you have options.


Strategies to Utilize During the Regular Season

The draft is only half the battle, you've got to make the right decisions each week and start the players who will get you the maximum amount of points. While some of that will be luck and unpredictable, there are other parts that have a method to the madness.

DO NOT start players who are injured, have a bye week, or are suspended or not playing for some other reason

     The biggest mistake people can make is forgetting to adjust their line up and playing a player who isn't playing. Once the games start, it's too late and this player is going to give you a big fat zero. At that point you're essentially trying to beat your opponent with (at least) one less player. Don't put yourself is these sorts of disadvantages, let someone else be the dumbass.


Sometimes, having the right match up is better than starting the better player

     I'll elaborate. Let's say I have the top ranked quarterback and the 9th ranked quarterback, however, this week the top quarterback is going against a top 5 pass defense and the 9th ranked quarterback is going against the league's worst pass defense. In situations like this, sometimes it's better to start the lower ranked player if the match up is in his favor. But also, don't overthink it. If there's a huge gap in production between your starter and your back up, best to continue riding the guy putting up the big numbers.


Keep an eye on the injury report

Ok so you may or may not see a little red letter next to your players names each week, either an 'O', 'D', or 'Q'. The O means they are out, i.e. don't play them. The 'D' means they are doubtful, which means you should assume they won't be playing either. 'Q' stands for questionable, which means there's about a 50/50 shot that player will play that week, in fact it may even be a game time decision. Luckily ESPN provides daily updates on these players though out the week, information such as if they practiced, if so how much (i.e. full contact, limited, etc.), if their coaches made any comments on their status, etc.


Streaming Defenses

One thing I like to do is use the waiver wire to rotate which defense I start each week. Rather than riding one defense the entire year, I like to try to identify who the bad offenses are and pick up the defenses playing against them if they are available.


When in doubt, use the intranet

I'll divulge that there are websites where you can input the two players you're debating between and it will spit out the percentage of experts who ranked one higher than the other. For example maybe I input Jameis Winston and Eli Manning and 58% of experts ranked Manning higher. You can also find things like their average ranking, min and max, and obviously point projections.


In conclusion

So that's about all the help I can give. The ball is now in your court, but at the very least you should have a lot better idea of what you're doing. Growing pains are to be expected, but at the very least these articles should help you minimize and give you the tools to be successful. Good luck!





























































































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